once Again, the political fate of Theresa May is on the Brink. For the second Time the Prime Minister makes in the evening in the British Parliament with the EU negotiated exit agreement to the vote. The first Time the Deal was quashed with 432 202 votes. The chances of success are difficult to evaluate, this Time harder, after May, the European Union was able to wrest at the last second, further concessions to the Treaty.

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May wins in the last second concessions from the EU


sticking point in the negotiations has been the so-called Backstop. The catch-all solution for Northern Ireland is to prevent a hard border between the British province and the EU member Ireland. Accordingly, the United Kingdom would remain in a customs Union with the EU, if after the expiry of a Transition period, no other agreement is made.

In the night, May and the EU have reached an agreement-Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker on a “legally binding Instrument” that will now make it even clearer that the Backstop is not more than a temporary solution.

it is Questionable now whether the Brexit supporters in may’s conservative party to give up due to the new agreements made, their opposition to the agreement. May should fail, has announced the conservative head of government for Wednesday a vote on whether the country on the 29. March to retirement without any kind of Deal from the EU. Even that is rejected, to choose the deputies on Thursday, if London is to ask the EU an extension of the withdrawal period.

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May is hoping that the Brexit-hardline give in to your party for fear of high economic damage in the event of a No-Deal scenario, but the Deal by waving. Otherwise, a shift could also lead to a second Referendum and to move away from Brexit, threatened May still on Friday. “If we embark on this path, could it be that we leave the EU, never.”

Before the vote in London, the EU Commission President, Jean made it clear-Claude Juncker, that this will be the last concessions granted by the EU. He implored the MPs in the British house of Commons, the Treaty now agree. “There will be no third Chance,” said Juncker.

These scenarios are conceivable.

scenario 1: The agreement will be

adopted on Tuesday a majority in favour of the exit agreement, the way is theoretically clear for the approximately two-year transition phase, in which everything should stay the same. However, whether the UK is actually already on the 29. March departure, is doubtful. In the meantime, it is considered certain that a short “technical” extension of the withdrawal deadline will still be necessary to bring the appropriate legislation through Parliament.

one of the Decisive factors for the success of the vote is likely to be whether the British state attorney General Geoffrey Cox, changes in a legal opinion in his original assessment of the agreement now. Cox had found in December that the UK could remain in the Backstop regime permanently against his will, the EU is bound.

Should change Cox its opinion, are likely to give up a lot of Brexit supporters in may’s party their opposition to the agreement. The North would not even Irish-Protestant let cal DUP convince, could, May bring in the view of observers, their Deal in fact, yet through Parliament. The DUP announced that it plans to study the new agreement with the EU very carefully.

scenario 2: No Deal

An exit without any agreement, with fatal consequences for the economy and many other areas of life come about, if not active, something else is done. This is due to the legal requirements. In the EU Treaty, a two-year discharge period is provided only at the request of London, and with the consent of all the member countries is extended. It runs at 29. March. Also in Britain to exit the EU law this date as Brexit is written to-date.

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scenario 3: “Groundhog day” – third vote on the same template

The last word would not be spoken but to the view of the political scientist Simon usher wood of the University of Surrey yet. The agreement should be rejected this Time less clearly than last Time, could May to submit your Deal for a third Time to the members, he believes. “Only if you choose one of the more radical variants, such as an election or a Referendum, you would not go to a third round,” said usher wood.

scenario 4: displacement of the Brexits

That the United Kingdom requested an extension of the EU-withdrawal, is now regarded as the most likely outcome of the voting marathons to Brexit. But why the delay is supposed to serve? Brussels has already made it clear that the extension of the withdrawal period must be linked with a clear purpose, for example, a new election or a second Referendum. For both, there seems to be currently in the Parliament no majority.

But the members could use voting to have the government impose a direction, for example, a further round of voting on the different options.

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there is also A question of for how long the outlet is to be moved. An extension on the 2. July also seems problematic because then it may be that the newly elected European Parliament convenes. The UK would still be a member of the EU it would have to also members – but have not been selected.

scenario 5: The Brexit off

the Britain to leave the EU is cancelled, while theoretically possible, the British government could retreat to a judgment of the European court of justice, your withdrawal request until the last one-sided. However, this is considered to be very unlikely. Politically protected, that could be probably only by a second Referendum – for which no majority in sight. May is also strictly against it and warns of a loss of confidence in democracy after the British had voted in 2016, the majority for exiting the EU.

kng / DPA