More births and immigration are not enough, according to one study, in order to alleviate the negative consequences of demographic ageing for social security in Germany.
“significantly higher levels of Immigration and birth numbers alone can the forthcoming challenges for social security systems hardly affect”, according to a study by the Bertelsmann Foundation. What is needed is a Mix of activities.
more and More people in the “advanced age” should be employed, also enables a “dynamic age”. The age limit could increase based on the increase in life expectancy until 2060 to 70 years. In addition, should immigrants be integrated faster into the labour market, the scope of work and employment of women significantly. Without a great deal of the now younger Generation will be burdened in the future so strong that a “massive distribution of a threatened conflict between the Young and the Old.”
For the study were calculated by two researchers at the University of Bochum on the basis of different scenarios, the consequences of the demographic ageing process. Even under the less realistic assumption that birth rates and Immigration to grow very strong, will shoot up the expenditure of social protection systems is worrying, the authors emphasize. From the present 890 billion Euro (2017) to approximately 1.6 trillion Euro in the year 2045. There is no relaxation in sight.
to Fund this, it would burden the younger generations, according to the forecast, more and more. For in 2010 Born in the future to be paid, contribution rates are rising, on average, about 50 per cent of the contributory income in 2017, this value was approximately 40 percent. Or, in other words, according to Simulation, a 2010-born average income earners in his entire working life, probably about 741.000 euros social security contributions to pay – and so good to 170,000 euros more than a 1970 Born with 570,000 euros. In order to obtain the same benefits.
The demographic status currently: On 100 persons between 15 and 64 years, 33 persons over 65 years of age. In 2035 there will be 50 Elderly. Even for the unlikely classified case, that every woman should get from 2020, an average of two children and it is up to 2040, then, mathematically, to 2.2 children, it would have the sound Foundation on the ageing of the population, first of all, long years of no influence – but only if this young acquisition would. In 2017, every woman got statistically 1.57 children.
Due to increasing immigration, the aging, let process buffer. However, “in the long run, the immigrants are aging, however, or migrate back to,” it said in Gütersloh. The migratory balances of highly durable, increasing the aging process in the long term. 2017 416.080 people were immigrated to Germany.