Even if no-one knows how the Brexit appearance and when it is completed, the gross income in Germany, he diminishes according to a study, probably in the billions.
there is a unregulated outlet UK apply without a contract, would have to be German to a loss of income of almost 10 billion euros a year. Per capita, this means, statistically, approximately , estimates, a calculation of the Bertelsmann Foundation that was published on Thursday in Gütersloh.
According to the UK itself would be charged, therefore, the export-oriented Germany, the gross income the strongest, followed by France and Italy. The United Kingdom would, according to the Simulation in the case of a No-Deal to the outlet, an annual income loss of 57 billion euros – the equivalent of about 875 Euro per inhabitant. At almost 8 billion euros less, the French and, to a good EUR 4 billion less, the Italians make, the study predicts.
An orderly Brexit with the exit agreement would mitigate the negative impact of significantly, the authors emphasize. They had estimated on the Basis of official trade data in two scenarios – Brexit, with or without a contract – income developments, on the basis of expected changes in gross domestic product. As reasons for the expected losses they call duties, the more expensive Goods, but also a decline in competition in Europe, with negative consequences for price and wage development.
Almost 10 billion euros in absolute loss of income to Germany every year to be a high value, corresponds to only about 0.3 percent of the gross domestic product, said co-author Dominic Ponattu. It was assumed that regional differences in the effects. North Rhine-Westphalia, would be likely to be affected particularly strongly, because the UK games for the NRW-Export a large role. Bayern would lose in the case of the absolute income losses are also quite clear. In addition, the Brexit meet strong regions with a high proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises – for example, the region surrounding Stuttgart and Hamburg and the Rhineland.
In the case of a contractual exit the Simulation looks far less negative impact. For Germany suppose then income losses of around 5 billion Euro. Also for the whole of the EU (excluding the UK) would halve the loss in the approximately – estimated at 22 billion euros.
the U.S. and China, with annual billion-income growth could Benefit, a slight increase in the study also expected for Russia. Ponattu said, going to the trade within Europe is expensive, would the “economic relations with the Rest of the world” attractive. Chairman of the Foundation, Aart de Geus warned, London, and Brussels should regulate the exit necessarily in a contract. The Foundation of the world’s largest common economic space threatens to be severely damaged.
Many voices from the world of politics, the economy, and even consumer advocates had warned of drastic consequences should it come to a chaotic Brexit. The British Prime Minister, Theresa May had the EU on Wednesday for a delay of up to 30. June asked, without participation in the European elections earlier in may.