With a week’s delay in Africa’s Land of superlatives selects on Saturday for a new President. Experts expect a head-to-head race between the conservative incumbent, Muhammadu Buhari (76) and the liberal opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar (72).

experts warn that it could come in a close election violence between supporters of the two camps, if the losing candidate does not accept the result.

There is a lot at stake: Nigeria, with nearly 200 million inhabitants, Africa’s most populous country, the largest economy and the most important oil Producer on the continent. At the same time more people are living in any country of the world in extreme poverty. This is also one of the reasons why many Nigerians to flee to Europe. In Germany alone, requested 2018 over 11,000 Nigerians asylum, which was in fifth place in the asylum statistics. And the migration pressure will continue to rise: The population is expected to quadruple according to UN forecasts, from the current 200 million people by 2100, to around 800 million people.

The surprising postponement of the vote last Saturday, just hours before the Opening of polling stations has increased tensions in the West African country. The since expressed conspiracy theories and blame the major parties assignments could undermine confidence in the electoral Commission, says Nigerian expert Nnamdi Obasi of the think-tank International Crisis Group. “As a result, the probability of clashes and violence increases seed clashes during and after the election,” said Obasi.

The credit rating Agency Fitch explains, the shift is likely to lead to a lower turnout, which would be an advantage for the incumbent, Buhari. The President has not helped after the shift to smooth things over: On Monday, he threatened potential election fraudsters and even death. He had instructed the military and the police, “ruthless”, said Buhari. The election in 2015 was peaceful, after the controversial election in 2011, however, around 1000 people were died in the riots died.

about 84 million Nigerians are entitled to. The office of the heads of state, 72 candidates apply. To win the election, a candidate, an absolute majority of votes, as well as a minimum of 25 percent of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 States. In the case of the election of a new Parliament is determined. First reliable results were not expected before Monday.

The two most promising candidates, the majority of the young population of Nigeria, the reforms promise: The ascetic-looking Buhari wants to improve the infrastructure and promises to fight corruption and radical Islamists. The rather affable entrepreneur Abubakar wants to liberalise the economy and thus growth and create millions of jobs. The two favorites for the voters, no blank sheets.

The former General Buhari, who ruled Nigeria in the 1980s, temporarily, as a military dictator, once again, for the party of the progressive (APC). He is accused of, to have in his tenure, little has been achieved. Corruption decreased, health system is still desolate, and the number of poor continued to increase. Records of Buhari set with long phases of the Disease. The reason for its months-long breaks in London, he’s hiding. In December, he denied rumors that he was already dead and a DoppelgangeR has been replaced.

opposition candidate, Abubakar, who is called in Nigeria only after his first Atiku, for the people’s democratic party (PDP). He was from 1999 to 2007, Nigeria’s Vice-President. Abubakar continued to be a corporate conglomerate, the transactions in the Oil sector, in the media and the education sector. For years, Abubakar pursue serious allegations of corruption. It is considered likely that he benefited business also of its political relations. In a report by the US Senate in 2010 has been described as Abubakar millions of dollars in the United States moved to have. The politician rejects all allegations.

Whoever wins the election, the crisis in the impoverished North-East of the country, Where Sunni extremists are terrorizing the population. At least two million people are fleeing from the violence. Buhari had won the election in 2015, especially because he promised to prepare the radical Islamists. Under his leadership, the military has made great progress. Buhari described the Islamists even as “technically defeated”. But this was premature: the Islamists stronger again recently.