Two of the arsonist, the present now as firefighters: First Kim Jong-Un has staggered the world with its nuclear and missile tests in fear and terror, threatened and then Donald Trump the “little rocket man” with the “fire and rage”, the “utter destruction”.
Captured the historic first summit between the US President and North Korea’s ruler in June 2018 in Singapore, the immediate danger of war should bring about the second Meeting on Wednesday and Thursday in Hanoi, a symbol of peace – even if the goal of nuclear disarmament will be put on the long Bank.
Both men love the big show. So, it is conceivable that Trump and Kim declare an end to the Korean war (1950-53). More than six decades after the ceasefire is a confidence-be it a measure of historical Dimension, the costs little. Only the first step in the direction of a peace Treaty, because under international law, the Korean Peninsula is still in a state of war. “President Trump is ready to put an end to this war,” said his special envoy for North Korea, Stephen Biegun.
The removal of the nuclear and missile Arsenal is Trump long be satisfied with small steps. After the Meeting with Kim in Singapore, the US President announced hastily: “Of North Korea not a nuclear threat.” Since then, he is cautious, but optimistic that his efforts for the nuclear disarmament of North Korea – and thus to the solution of one of the most dangerous global crisis will also bear fruit.
This Confidence seems to have missed US secret service coordinator Dan Coats of a shock, as he much to the dismay of Trumps fall in front of the US Congress said: “We currently assume that North Korea is trying its skills in the area of weapons of mass destruction to maintain.” It was unlikely that Kim give up its nuclear weapons, because he considered them as crucial to the survival of his Regime. Nevertheless: Better to talk than shoot each other.
Today, Trump told of a Meeting after his election victory in November 2016 than the outgoing invited President Barack Obama to the White house. “And I said: “What is the biggest Problem?” He said: “North Korea, by far.” And I don’t want to speak for him, but I think he would have started a war with North Korea,” Trump said about Obama. “He told me, he was so close to a major war with North Korea to begin.”
it is Questionable if Trump is the conversation properly again. Only sounds doubtful of his conclusion: “If I hadn’t been to the President of the United States elected, we would be involved, in my opinion, in a major war with North Korea, with potentially millions of people killed.” Ben Rhodes, at the time, Obama’s Deputy national security adviser, makes it clear: “We were in 2016, on the verge of a war with North Korea.” John Brennan, the former CIA Director, is confident that “President Obama was never on the verge of any war with North Korea begin, whether big or small.”
With the skillful presentation of the US President, his North Korea may not present policies but, in any case, as a success: Even if the progress of the negotiations and he will not reach his goal of a “final, fully verified denuclearization” of North Korea, he would have prevented at least one war.
Both sides are not in agreement, for once, like the much-quoted “denuclearization” at all precisely defined. But after all, the last nuclear weapons and missile tests date back more than a year. So, shows the Trumps North Korea policy of the carrot (the promise of economic development) and sticks (the threat of total destruction in the case of simultaneous sanctions) effect? Or is it Kim’s rapprochement policy, which allows progress?
One thing seems certain: Even after the summit in Vietnam, the nuclear disarmament of North Korea – in the best case will be brought a bit closer. “I think it’s safe to say that we have more work ahead than behind us,” says trump’s special envoy to Biegun.
A spectacular Declaration of Peace in Hanoi would help show the master Trump but to displace bad headlines at home: most Recently, the debacle of the Shutdown, the shutdown of Parts of the government. Then the dispute over the Trump on the border with Mexico declared a state of emergency, which most Americans reject. In addition, the Democrats have a hard time in Congress Trump the life. Especially FBI-special investigator, Robert Mueller, to investigate whether there were 2016 secret collusion of trump’s choice of battle camp with Russia.
That Trump is such a under pressure, his counterpart, Kim located. He sees the location for the summit as follows: you need to move, we have taken the first steps to the new measures, but of you it is as good as nothing came so far. The stop of the missile and nuclear tests for the power to these inputs, as well as the blasting of tunnels at the nuclear test site Punggye-ri, the mountainous Area for more Attempts allegedly unusable was made.
Kim’s promise to its own people, to renew the ailing economy. The sanctions available to the projects in the way. Kim has not managed to overcome the food shortages, the people of the isolated country for many years suffering. The extent to which Washington is willing to, in addition to a Declaration of Peace on a end of the Korean war, to the demand for an easing of sanctions, you must show up at the summit.
The South Korean President, Moon Jae-In, said Kim in September, he was willing, the huge nuclear complex in Yongbyon to reduce if the USA would be appropriate to provide the services. There is a reactor and a reprocessing plant to produce bomb fuel, Plutonium. It is believed that Kim could be present at the summit in Hanoi, perhaps, plans for the removal of the nuclear facilities and the approval of international inspectors.
A demo-day would have great symbolic power. A team of researchers from the center for International security and cooperation (CISAC) North Korea expert Siegfried Hecker came to the conclusion that the country has operated in the past year, “its nuclear facilities to extract Plutonium and highly enriched uranium”. “This could allow him to increase the number of nuclear weapons in its Arsenal of roughly 30 in the year 2017, to 35 to 37.”
But even if the demolition of the Yongbyon was supposed to start, the winner is North Korea more time, without separating himself from his nuclear weapons. According to the former senior North Korean diplomats Thae Yong Ho, who had fled in 2016, according to South Korea, are located in Yongbyon 390 systems. “Even if it an agreement for the inspection, disassembly and then Checking the closure of the facilities can not be completed within the term of office of President Trump.”
Also, Thae, has evolved from a system of advocates to a loud critic of Pyongyang, is that North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons never: “What do you have, if the nuclear weapons are taken away? Nothing.”