Was it Trump? Or was it Obama? Or the policy of the White house has absolutely no influence on the weal and Woe of the US Economy? The largest economy in the world is booming – still. President Donald Trump claimed it for themselves. But is it really true?
CLAIM: Donald Trump has brought the US economy back on track.
RATING: Probably wrong, or at least significantly exaggerated.
FACTS: The US economy is booming. The unemployment rate was in November of 2018, with 3.7 percent, very low. The economy grew with a great pace of 3.5 percent in the third quarter. However, This is a Trend that continues for a long time. The curves of the main economic indicators do not show any rashes since the introduction of Donald Trump in January 2017. It went before and after straight up.
the number of persons employed (excluding agriculture) had reached approximately the bottom out in 2010 and, Since then, it went from just under 130 million steep up to 145 million at the time of taking office, the Trumps. Until mid-2018, then it went more uphill, but only by 4 million. The curve is almost linear. In the case of the unemployment rate, we find the same pattern: In
trade war with US
China’s economy “falters”
in October 2009, the financial crisis had driven the rate to ten percent, in Obama’s term of office it fell to 4.8 percent. During the almost two years Trump it fell further to 3.7 percent. Also the increase in the average hourly wage of 22 dollars (in 2009) to more than $ 27 only about a Dollar of the Five Dollar difference in the time Trumps. However, The longer such a Trend persists, the harder it is to maintain it.
CLAIM: The trade policy and tariff barriers for imports from China and other countries will bring prosperity to the USA.
FACTS: Trumps in March, imposed special duties about to steel and aluminum imports to the US-importers pay in the first place. The auto industry complains, purchase prices for steel have increased in the past few months by 30 per cent. In a more cautious calculation, the US Central Bank had calculated in Dallas, the metal prices, a total of 21 percent. Due to distortions on the labour markets – if, for example, domestic steel poach works workers in other industries, there is a decline in productivity of three per cent.
The International monetary Fund has identified the US trade policy as one of the biggest risks for the world economy. The outgoing IMF chief economist Maury Obstfeld has published in his Blog a model calculation. The model indicates that duties of 20 percent on imports from East Asia – including retaliation – about five years, a negative effect of 1.5 percentage points to the growth of the economy. The Dollar would appreciate against the foreign currency by two percent, and thus imports more expensive.
United States end up in the Ranking for competitiveness in space 1
“as you like get the directly from foreign imports, affected industries and workers a little air, they act in the width of the shrinking, you reduce the output, investment, and employment in the economy as a whole,” writes Obstfeld in his Blog about import duties. The IMF expects these effects for the U.S. economy in 2020 or later – the extent would be visible only after the next presidential election.
ASSERTION: Trump breaks down the trade deficit with other countries such as China due to its aggressive economic policy.
RATING: not Yet detectable, probably wrong.
FACTS: Donald Trump has declared from the first day of his presidency, the elimination of trade deficits of the United States, China and the European Union cornerstones of not only his trade, but also its entire foreign policy. “America First” is the guiding principle. Alone: The elimination. In trump’s first year in office in 2017, the trade deficit jumped by 12.6 percent to 568 billion dollars in comparison to the previous year. Trump speaks of a 800 billion Dollar deficit, which he must remove. In this view he attributed to the services in which the United States have a Surplus.
The US-based Bank in New York, the customs policy Trumps and his trade war with China will not lead to reducing the trade deficit. Tariffs make imports more expensive and they will reduce – but by customs duties and
How the Brexit now the economy
retaliatory tariffs the costs for the US rise in imports from other countries. At the same time, production costs are rising in the U.S. and make domestic products more expensive. The Central bankers show based on China’s example after its entry into the world trade organization (WTO), as indicated by the significant reduction of customs duties on both exports as well as imports increased enormously.
ASSERTION: The new trade Pact with Canada and Mexico is much cheaper for the USA.
FACTS: up to the last Minute, held-open trade agreements Trumps has been able to trade representative Robert Lighthizer, two great results: concessions for U.S. agriculture and concessions to the US automotive site. The US Farmer to get through the USMCA agreement referred to again more access to the canadian market for dairy products – the access had narrowed canadian regulations before. In return, the importation of canadian dairy limited products.
Above all, it succeeded the U.S. Negotiators but, for the first time, minimum wages in the auto industry for all three countries to enforce – at least partially. By 2023, 40 to 45 percent of the cars of workers must be made to get the $ 16 hourly wage, or more – so the low-wage country, Mexico is a part of its wage advantage.