Donald trump’s decision, U.S.-troops from Syria to deduct, has led In the country and abroad to an Outcry and, in part, to the scornful reactions of his judgment: “We have struck the IS in Syria,” wrote Donald Trump on Twitter. Now the U.S. President of its troops from the war-torn country, the process is supposedly already in progress (read wants to pull you more to the backgrounds).
As this step is rate? What are the consequences of the US troop withdrawal from Syria – especially Syria – have? Will spread the IS again? “The so-called Islamic state controls in Syria today, there is no significant territory,” says Syria expert Muriel Asseburg the star. “Permanently, he is defeated but by no means.”
Dr. Muriel Asseburg of the science and politics Foundation (SWP) is a political scientist, her research, among other things, conflict in the middle East, political Islam, as well as German, European and American policy towards the Region. It is part of the research group near/middle East and Africa at SWP.
©Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik PR Syria expert Muriel Asseburg: “The deduction has potentially three critical effects”
Dr. Asseburg, “We have to defeat the IS in Syria,” writes US President Donald Trump on Twitter. Is that true?
The so-called Islamic state controls in Syria today, there is no appreciable territory; the state-like construct does not exist any more; many of its fighters have been killed. Thus, the international attraction has waned significantly. Permanently, he is defeated but not.
How is it with the IS in Syria?
Not only many domestic and foreign armed fighters in the country on hold. Especially the Islamic state and other radical groups are likely to have in the future feed. Because it currently looks not so, as if in Syria, an inclusive political nachbürger war system. Because Assad is not ready to be a political Transition to a democratic System or to in-depth reforms. He is not ready to a power-sharing, which would include the Opposition, or would provide at the local level with more autonomy. And he is not ready to be a reconciliation with the Opposition.
I don’t think it is likely that the IS started again, larger areas under his control gets
US troops should be withdrawn from Syria, you’ve even already. How would you rate the current situation in Syria and how will change the situation in Syria by this step?
The withdrawal of U.S. troops has potentially three critical effects.
He makes first the way for a Turkish military operation in the North-East of Syria against the Kurdish PYD. Also the regime forces and its supporters are likely to in the future, to cross the Euphrates line and to displace the PYD/SDF from the controlled areas in the East.
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the military Balance in the country moves second, more in favour of the supporters of the regime, so Russia and Iran. Thus an important lever eliminates pressure on Assad to exercise in order to achieve a sustainable stabilization.
Third, the US military presence on the border with Iraq, which has so far prevented Iran is in control of a land corridor from Tehran to the Mediterranean sea and its support of the militias to expand, for example by delivering weapons to Hezbollah. But Israel feels threatened, and will take corresponding military action. In contrast to the assessment made by the Russian President Putin of withdrawal of US will not lead troops so that the combat actions are now completed quickly.
Is spread of IS in Syria now?
I don’t think it is likely that the IS gets more and more areas under his control. Rather, he is likely to convert like other radical groups, an insurgency that destabilized the country in the medium term.
The military conflicts are expected rather in the weeks and months to re-escalate
And long term?
Due to the experience in Iraq after 2003 and the escalation of the conflict between different regional powers – such as Iran and Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia – is not quite likely that Syria will stabilize in the long term.
Must be compensated for the U.S. troops withdrawal by the military presence of other countries? Who comes here into question – and what impact might a new “military relationship” in Syria?
for A time the Americans, with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arabs about were in the conversation, if you could send the appropriate troops. These talks seem to have been to no avail. Also, the countries that currently have bases in the North-East of Syria, including France, are unlikely to be willing to let their presence there to expand and to take on the role of the United States …
What does this mean? For Syria, the US and maybe Europe?
A rapid pacification of Syria is not to be expected. The military clashes are likely to rather escalate in the coming weeks and months. This is the civil population, for whose protection none of the regional and international players makes strong hits in the first place. The American u-turn undermined but also the construction efforts in the by the IS liberated territories in Syria. And the reliability of the US as Alliance partners generally out of the question.
editors ‘ note: Muriel Asseburg has answered the questions of the star in writing.