In Moscow is suddenly a topic on the Agenda that appears so bizarre that it is hard to believe a: the inclusion of Belarus in the Russian Federation. “Minsk belongs to us. The 86 Belarus soon. Russian Federal district?” are about the headlines. Two visits of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko with Vladimir Putin triggered the speculation.
Between Moscow and Minsk, the signs are currently on confrontation. The reason: Russia wants to raise tariffs on Gas and oil Supplies. So far, the Import of Russian raw materials to Belarus inch was free. An introduction is likely to cost Minsk the equivalent of 350 million euros in the year. Little wonder, then, that Lukashenko cross. Putin, in turn, may waive, in view of the poor economic situation in Russia on the money.
in Order to clarify how to resolve these interests conflict, traveled Lukashenko so at the end of December to Moscow. For hours he chatted with Putin behind closed doors. About the outcome of the talks to be silent, but this is likely to be different failed, as it has hoped for the Belarusian President. He grumbled, you should designate Russia as a “fraternal state” or “Partner”.
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From the Russian side, it was said, however, it is expected of white Russia to be more accommodating and “Integration”. The first Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, Anton Siluanov, stated that they expect of Minsk, steps in the direction of the Union state, if it wants to continue to benefit from the gifts from Russia, especially from the multi-billion dollar loans and the lack of customs duties. A single currency would be appropriate, for example.
Lukashenko has set itself the rumors in the world
For Lukashenko in the Moscow demanded “Integration” is only a pretext, and white Russia are seeking to incorporate. “I understand these insinuations,” he commented caustically. “It means, take the Oil, but ruined, please your country and join Russia.” Thus, Lukashenko himself put the rumors of a possible unification of the two countries in the world.
a Few days later, he rowed back. Such Considerations were “pulled by the hair,” he said at a consultation on social policy in Minsk. He was also Putin agreed that no Association is pending. But the categorical rejection, the more likely experience, in accordance with the Claimed.
Vladimir Putin is hardly in pension
If a Union of Belarus and Russia in any case may be, in the interests of Lukashenko, it seems to be from Putin’s point of view, desirable. In the political circles of Moscow dealing for some time with the question of what the Kremlin leader in the year 2024. Then his fourth term in office runs out. The Constitution prohibits him further. But hardly anyone believes that Putin will then go into retirement. Therefore he must find a way to remain in Power.
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That Dmitry Medvedev as interim steps in-the President again, as he has done before, is unlikely. The head of government is currently so unpopular as never before. According to a recent survey by the Lewada-center, 53 percent of Russians wish for the resignation of his government. An Amendment to the Constitution is also considered to be unlikely. Because Belarus is a “more elegant” solution to the problem.
Treaty of 1996 provides for Union state before
Belarus and Russia Should find a Union state, Putin would be able to remain President. The Basis for such Considerations is a contract from the year 1996, the Lukashenka and the then Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, have signed. This provides for a Russian-white Russian Union. White Russia will be, therefore, a Russian Federal state. Russia and Belarus are linked by a common legal system, a common currency and a common President.
so Far the Union state has existed only on paper. While Putin has so far had only a limited interest in the white-Russian Integration, in Minsk long ago, the realization that Lukashenko himself can never ascend to the President. This office would fall to Putin. And then could stay until the end of his life President, because the Union contract does not provide for elections.
No intercession in the population
Should be able to enforce Putin, in fact, the Union state would be the way for him. On the basis of the contract, the operation would comply with international law.
But how likely is this scenario? For Lev Gudkov, Director of the research center Lewada, this is so far pure speculation. “Lukashenko will never start it,” he told the star. “So that he would lose his Power.” The threats, white Russia could seek other partners, such as the USA, are just Verhandlungstatktik. “He tried to blackmail Putin, but that will not succeed. White Russia is very Russian.”
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the Director of The Kremlin-the independent Institute do not believe that a Union dispute in the interest of Putin. “In the population, there is not enough support for this idea. In the 90 years ago, the idea was still very popular. At that time, 60 percent would have welcomed an Association. Today, however, there are still more than 30 per cent.”. So would the arguments of those who believe, a Association stand on the Plan, exhausted. Many speculate that such a move by Putin would get rid of domestic problems. The popularity ratings of the President have suffered significantly in the last year. The Crimea-to-noise is over. Tax increases, pension reform and rising prices for the population. A new foreign-policy success could create a diversion, so is the thought. But a Union with Belarus is not available for the population currently on the priority list.
Good Tsar, evil boyars
“You have to say, however, that Putin has so far taken little account of the sensitivities of the population,” Gudkov to keep in mindn. If something Putin as advantageous, do it. Not Dmitry Medvedev is still used as a scapegoat. “Putin’s rule is based on a simple System: the good Tsar, evil boyars [Russian nobles].” Everything is wrong, members of Parliament, local politicians, authorities and Medvedev to answer for. Putin floats, however, beyond the reach of all. “The pension reform has hurt him, because he signed it in the end. But the System still works,” says the sociologist. As long as this is so, giving it up for Putin little sense to change something.
Since the annexation of the Crimea it is necessary to take, but also ideas, which were considered earlier as the ravings very seriously.