Endless truck convoys at the borders, loss of production, drugs shortage: After the rejection of the Brexit agreement by the British Parliament, the disorderly withdrawal of Britain from the European Union is more likely. Hard this Leaving is called because there are no agreements about the exchange of goods, approvals, or customs rules. Apart from the cost in the billions of Unger can exit incisive, applicable to the end up can have dramatic consequences – not only for Britain but also for Germany.
The Brexit-follow Overview of: Truck congestion at ports
border formalities could make for long queues in the transport of goods. In the port of Dover Truck clearance currently takes two minutes. Only two minutes more would cause operator congestion of 27 kilometers. The British government has chartered for more than 100 billion pounds Fährkapazitäten in other ports, in order to relieve Dover.
Because of the threat of delivery bottlenecks, “hoarding” British companies already import goods they need for their production a matter of urgency. According to the credit insurer, Euler Hermes, there is “hamster purchases, such as after a storm warning”. In the meantime, get in the UK but little more bearing surfaces because, in addition to industrial plants, supermarkets, food bunkers stock.
The pharmaceutical industry fears massive supply bottlenecks. “This is particularly true for the supply of medicines in the UK”, says the German industry Association VCI. The MEP Peter Liese warns of deaths: “We must, alas, I fear that patients will die due to lack of medical care.”
About 17,000 employees of German companies manufacture in the UK precursors. In the case of a disordered Brexit missing registrations or approvals for products could bring many supply chains with a single blow to a Standstill, and also to the buyer of the Auto, consumer goods and construction meetings.
aircraft on the ground
In the case of a Brexit, without a Deal chaotic conditions also threaten airports. Traffic rights and operating permits would be null in this case. With special rules for twelve months, the EU wants to get at least some flights in an upright position. Interference is not likely in the absence of still. The Airline Association IATA calls for a mutual recognition of licences, as well as safety and industry standards. Otherwise, you would need about act all pieces of Luggage of passengers travelling via the UK to Europe, in the future, again through the security check. Long queues at passport control were inevitable.
Prior to the special problems of the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus, which employs in the UK approximately 14,000 employees. In the United Kingdom, all of the wings of the Airbus are designed Verkehrsjets and manufactured. “The Worst-Case scenario, the hard Brexit, without the agreement, would mean that we can’t get parts across the border,” said the head of the Airbus commercial aircraft division, Guillaume Faury, in the summer.
The car industry works today, with virtually no storage. Suppliers provide parts “just in time”, which can be directly processed after arrival. With wait times due to customs clearance, this will be hardly possible, as the European car manufacturers Association Acea warns. Companies are therefore working on contingency plans. As BMW announced to relocate the annual closure of its British plant for the Mini for maintenance purposes directly on the time after the Brexit.
British airlines could lose their right to fly for example from London to Frankfurt or Mallorca. Flights within the EU would be a thing of the past. Problems can’t give it to but also for the German holiday airline Condor, part of the travel group Thomas Cook, Tuifly, because these providers were more majority-EU-owned. The corporations equip themselves with emergency plans, so that your machines don’t have to stay in a non-Brexit apply on the ground. For the traffic rights of airlines is not only crucial, where the company has its headquarters, but also who it belongs to. EU to include airlines to more than 50 percent of the owners of the Union.
a number of banks have announced plans to relocate jobs from London to other financial centres. As soon as the UK leaves the EU you may no longer operate as in the past, London’s financial transactions in the community. According to the latest data of the financial supervision Bafin and more than 45 financial institutions are now in the process of creating in Germany a foothold or expand their presence. Most are moving to Frankfurt.
the UK is the fifth most important single market for machinery “Made in Germany”. 2017 machinery and equipment fell to a value of 7.3 billion euros in the United Kingdom. The imports from the UK were 2.6 billion is significantly lower. The industry Association, the export-oriented German industry VDMA warns that businesses should plan for significant delays and bottlenecks in the Export and Import and their supply chains for possible dependencies of the British suppliers to check.
recession and currency
The CBI expects a tough Brexit without an agreement with a slump in the economy. You could shrink by up to eight percent, which translates to job losses and lower tax revenue. The Bank of England expects a crash of the pound by 25 percent. Also, the real estate market would be hit hard. The Central bankers expect to see a case of house prices by 30 percent.
British media for Brexit vote
“Dead as a Dodo” and “total humiliation”: the British title of the pages to the Brexit vote
“No Deal, no hope, no idea, no trust” – it says so on the title page of the “Daily Mirror” after the Brexit vote. And the headline in the tabloid “The Sun” is almost tame. The title pages in the Overview.
The British export industry would lose according to the assessment by the credit insurer Euler Hermes in the first year of exports to the value of 30 billion pounds ($33.2 billion euros). The continental Europeans would be taken due to the close economic relations. Biggest loser, the German exports would, according to Euler Hermes to your with eight billion euros.
All of the Goods and people from the UK need to be controlled before Crossing the borders of the EU. Alone, German customs wants to hire 900 additional officers. In order to prevent, at least in tourist traffic is the worst, wants to allow the EU Commission to the British “Visa-free travel” for up to 90 days – if London conversely, this “all citizens of the EU grants”.
billion hole in EU budget
In the EU, Brexit would not have consequences only for the economy and in travel. Because in the EU budget then in 2019 and 2020 billions of dollars would be missing, the UK would previously pay due to the Brexit planned transition phase. Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger would have to expenditure perhaps planned EU-for farmers or research global reduce, or projects moving.
you can read here, as it’s the Brexit might be.
nik / DPA / AFP